Too many organisations still promote people into leadership roles based on a narrow definition of success – what they’ve done in the past. But that mindset is becoming increasingly outdated as the business environment grows more complex and unpredictable. In fact, it’s actively limiting the potential of both individuals and organisations.

To build leadership that’s fit for the future, we need to stop obsessing over past performance and start focusing on what people could become. That means fundamentally rethinking how we assess, develop and support leaders – moving from prediction to potential and from judgement to growth.

Predictability is overrated

We’re not as good at predicting leadership success as we’d like to believe. Nobel laureate Daniel Kahneman’s research in Noise: A Flaw in Human Judgment highlights just how flawed our decision-making can be. We’re biased, inconsistent and overly confident in our ability to forecast performance.

Traditional leadership assessments often rely on static data points – performance reviews, psychometrics, past roles – to guess how someone will perform in a new context. But this backward-looking approach assumes the future will behave like the past. That’s a risky bet.

Instead of trying (and failing) to predict who will make a great leader, organisations should invest in creating the conditions where leadership can emerge. That means enabling individuals to build self-awareness, explore new capabilities and let go of outdated routines. It’s not about finding the right person, it’s about helping people grow into the leaders they could be.

Variability is the big advantage

One of the most overlooked opportunities in traditional leadership pipelines is the value of variability – embracing differences in background, style and capability.

The business case for diversity is well-established. According to McKinsey & Company, organisations in the top quartile for leadership diversity are 39% more likely to financially outperform their peers. Diverse teams make better decisions, innovate more effectively and are better equipped to navigate complications. So why do so many leadership programmes still search for the same old signs of success?

Rigid selection processes often lead to homogenous leadership teams – people with similar career paths, educations and thinking styles. It’s a formula that risks becoming pale, male and stale. But future-ready organisations need a breadth of perspectives and strengths to tackle emerging challenges.

That’s where group-based development methods, like peer coaching, come in. Rather than relying solely on top-down selection, these programmes bring together individuals with varied experiences and mindsets to learn from each other. By developing skills such as active listening, curious questioning and collaborative problem-solving, peer coaching creates psychological safety and unlocks leadership potential in unexpected places.

Adaptability is the new superpower

With market conditions shifting overnight, regulatory landscapes evolving rapidly and technology advancing at speed, adaptability is no longer a nice-to-have, it’s essential.

Fortunately, people are inherently adaptable. But we often undervalue versatility and the ability to flex across different contexts and approaches. Overemphasis on specialisation can trap people in fixed mindsets and rigid behaviours, even when a different approach is needed.

Research from Harvard Business Review shows that versatile leaders are five times more likely to adapt their style to suit the situation. These leaders are more effective not because they have all the answers, but because they know how to pivot, adjust and guide others through uncertainty.

Developing this kind of versatility requires shifting from a how mindset (‘What behaviours do I need to perform?’) to a what mindset (‘What outcomes do I need to prioritise, let go of or redefine?’). It demands effort, coaching and a willingness to challenge traditional leadership norms. But the payoff is big: leaders who think and act flexibly build organisations that can do the same.

Prioritise collective growth

Leadership development has often been treated as a solo pursuit – a course here, a 360° review there, a lone journey to ‘be better’. But today’s challenges are too complex to be solved by individuals. We need collective growth.

Coaching groups and executive peer forums help shift the development lens from solo performance to shared progress. These spaces allow leaders to test assumptions, gain feedback from diverse perspectives and practice adaptability in real time. They create an environment where leadership becomes a collective act – less about command and control and more about curiosity, context and contribution.

When we judge less and help more, we create a culture where leadership isn’t confined to the few, but cultivated in the many.

Be less judgey

The best leaders today don’t just evaluate, they elevate. They don’t just assess, they assist. They create space for others to thrive and, in doing so, make their organisations more resilient, innovative and human.

If your recruitment strategy is still focused on ticking boxes and forecasting success based on the past, it’s time to rethink. The future of leadership doesn’t lie in spotting talent. It lies in building it. With inclusive, adaptable and developmental approaches, it’s possible to help people realise their full potential – and unlock the kind of leadership that’s ready for whatever comes next.

Tom Blower is the founder of Underdog Leadership Development, which helps businesses create better leadership models and growth strategies.